MOQQA

Modeling land-sea ecosystem trajectories through qualitative and quantitative approaches for eutrophication issues

Coordination

Mélanie Raimonet

Project type

National

Funding

ANR JCJC

Project duration

Start Date

23/11/2024

End Date

23/11/2024

Links

Eutrophication affects many coastal zones around the world, in response to nutrient-enriched river inputs. Mechanistic modeling of the land-sea continuum is essential to understand the non-linear relationships between these inputs and eutrophication symptoms, and to test the impact of prospective scenarios. Various initiatives have been undertaken to develop land-sea modeling since the 2000s, but further developments are still needed to model the land-sea socio-ecosystem in an integrated way, to take into account the complexity of its functioning and to disentangle the role of local anthropogenic pressures and climate change in eutrophication trends. These developments are also a prerequisite for identifying the potential for changes in practices/uses/regulation/system to reduce eutrophication under climate change. MOQQA aims to develop generic methods based on a suite of participative approaches of qualitative and quantitative modeling, in order to (1) better understand the complex interactions within the land-sea socio-ecosystem, (2) increase the integration of non-scientific local knowledge into land-sea modeling, (3) model the cascade of hydro-biogeochemical, ecological and socio-economical impacts under different co-constructed scenarios of changing practices/uses/regulation/system and climate, (4) identify the conditions required for sustainable socio-ecosystem trajectories, and (5) promote adaptive co-management of the land-sea continuum. The methodology aims to be transposable to any land-sea socio-ecosystem, and will first be developed on a pilot site, the Bay of Brest and its watersheds.